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メキシコのロスカボス(Los Cabos)で開かれる世界主要経済20カ国会議では、欧州金融危機を回避するために,ドイツのメルケル(Angela Merkel)首相の対応の軟化が望まれる
El G-20 clava la mirada en Merkel
El G-20 pedirá a la canciller que flexibilice su posición para evitar un desastre en Europa
El rescate de la banca española y Grecia también condicionan la cita
The G-20 stares in Merkel
The G-20 asked the chancellor to flex their position to avoid a disaster in Europe
The rescue of Spanish banks and Greece also influence the appointment
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 17 JUN 2012 - 00:01 CET
The G-20 asked the chancellor to flex their position to avoid a disaster in Europe
The rescue of Spanish banks and Greece also influence the appointment
Alejandro Bolaños Madrid 17 JUN 2012 - 00:01 CET
The semi-desert landscape of Los Cabos on the Pacific, is a bizarre scenario opposite to give a speech in the Bundestag. But the message released this week by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, will pivot the seventh summit of the G-20, the Mexican government has decided to celebrate at this luxury resort between tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday. Appointment to appointment, which brings together since the outbreak of the Great Recession leaders of the major advanced and emerging economies has expanded its scope to exceed the limit of what is manageable. But the outcome of the summit in Los Cabos will be measured by the ability to influence the decisions of a single country, to alter the speech in which Merkel set strict limits of the German response to the continuing crisis in the euro.
It is not the only paradox of a summit against the grain. The organization cites a government of Felipe Calderon to expire, which has advanced its conclusion to bypass the administrative halt after the Mexican elections. And that makes a number of reports that the G-20 responsible for making decisions, one of the main courses of action, not on time.
In addition, the meeting in Los Cabos is also strongly influenced by other electoral contests: the proximity of the U.S. presidential (in November) implies that any act of the administration of Barack Obama to stay in that, in gesture. The G-20 is also very aware of the Greek election results, especially if it requires leaving the arena to calm financial markets. Another thing is that the debate on the possibility of renegotiating the bailout of Greece passes the threshold into the meeting room of the Sherpas, the senior officials who do the dirty work. "Europe is very jealous of their decisions, not going to argue with others," predicts Federico Steinberg, a researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano.
more informationGermany castling against Europe, Claudi PEREZEurope foto'Una unrecognizable ', by J. I. TORREBLANCAHollande wants 120,000 million for the European economy
Since the G-20 leaders meet in Toronto (Canada) in mid 2010, the fourth summit of this forum, since the financial crisis focused on the European government bond market, the script is repeated. All other governments, with the U.S. in the lead, extols every laborious step in the euro area, while you are urged to act more decisively. "Since the European crisis, the G-20 is no longer resolving the fund was in 2009. And the question is that now the crisis is entering its deeper stages, "said Manuel de la Rocha, coordinator of international economics Alternatives Foundation.
The evils Europeans and hijacked the agenda of the summit in Cannes, at the end of last year, best known for the intense pressures of Merkel and French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, that Greece renounce a referendum on the second rescue plan for Italy to accept the supervision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). That was the beginning of the end of the Governments of George Papandreou and Silvio Berlusconi surveyed by Lucas Papademos technocrats and Mario Monti.
Since then, European solutions, always partial, always late, have high financial stress and uncertainty among the world leaders. The repetition of the Greek elections, unable to form government in May, show the limits of a bailout conditional on a host of adjustment measures, depressed. And the bad reception of the plan to rescue markets Spanish banks, for making the government responsible Rajoy of the loan, fueling the need for swift and decisive decisions. A requirement that you can only focus on Germany, the catalyst of the European response to the crisis, the country that has the final say in major reforms that lie ahead for the euro area.
The IMF and the U.S. leading the pressure for Germany to open the hand
"You know what to do to make monetary union work should clarify soon," said Wednesday the U.S. Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, referring to the debate on how to articulate union and fiscal union bank in the euro area . "It would be unfair to consider that Germany is the only source of trouble," he said in one of those apologies that sound like accusations, before adding: "Everyone is watching."
Just hours later, before the German parliament, Merkel resumed the thread where he had left Geithner. "All eyes are on Germany," Chancellor conceded, "but we have an infinite power, our responsibility as Europe's largest economy is to deploy our strength in a credible way." The Conservative leader was explicit in setting the limits of the G-20. "To all those in Los Cabos is expected of Germany a miracle solution either Eurobonds, changes in rescue funds, a European mechanism to guarantee bank deposits, billions and many other things," he said, "All the plans, all measures will be an illusion if they go beyond the capacity of Germany. "
In recent weeks, the Executive Merkel has resisted what they branded as miracle solutions: everything that raises even more German involvement in supporting partners in trouble without the euro area has been provided with sufficient power States to prevent re-turn (in the deficit, private debt, competitiveness) of policies that Berlin considered virtuous. The German Government believes that the necessary transfer of sovereignty has barely begun. And until then, any of the proposals deck-pump money into the bank without going through the States, to encourage direct intervention in the markets of the European Central Bank jointly assume the risk of public debt States of the euro would risk the credibility of Germany, which would push the euro crisis to another dimension.
"In Los Cabos will be a lot of pressure, but I doubt that Germany change its position, is very closed to outside influences. Only the U.S. has the capacity to be heard, "says the researcher Steinberg, also a professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid. As you approach the summit, the chorus of complaints rises in pitch. And not everyone has been so subtle as the secretary of the U.S. Treasury.
The rescue of Spanish banks and Greece also influence the appointment
"I do not know if the German government needs to leave the euro Greece to explain to its citizens why they need to do things like union or bank Eurobonds", shot George Osborne, Britain's finance minister. "I would ask European leaders to act as the U.S. has asked," raised the Japanese Finance Minister, Jun Azumi. His Australian counterpart, Wayne Swan, reproached the euro area "has ruined several months of relative calm" after the two injections of liquidity multimillion practiced the ECB in December and February.
Cracks in the common position of the EU are increasingly evident. The European Council President, Herman van Rompuy, called Friday a video conference between the leaders of European countries of the G-20 (Mariano Rajoy included) to iron out differences. A meeting preceded by calls by French President François Hollande, to revive growth-thesis in which aligns with Monti and Obama, in sharp contrast to the known negative Merkel - "do not want growth programs based on more debt "-. And the acid criticism of European Commission President Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, German reluctance: "I'm sure that all capitals are aware of the urgency of this."
Also striking was the reaction of the Spanish government, just days after presenting the bank bailout as a credit of up to 100,000 million euros "on very favorable terms," achieved through pressure Executive Rajoy. The Foreign Minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, Germany demanded a vision "broader, long-term." "If a country thrown to the wolves, it will affect everyone," said the minister. In the week that the risk premium beat Spanish record since the start of the euro zone, Garcia-Margallo emphasized the need for "a rescue mechanism that works" and a "decisive action against speculation."
The presentation of the summit, Mexican Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade, said that the G-20 is an opportunity for Spain to "clear doubts" about the details of the bank rescue. But the hand of the Executive is only revealing what Rajoy capital needs arising-halfway between the minimum of 40,000 million set by the IMF and the top of the loan, 100,000 million, the work of external evaluators.
To translate Spanish to German demands, simply use the successive interventions of the IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, in the last week. "The ECB should further relax monetary conditions and use, if necessary, unconventional measures," in direct reference to rate cuts, new injections of liquidity and buying bonds from countries in trouble, just everything to what is Berlin opposed. "There must be a direct link between the resources of the bailout funds and banks," referring to the problems associated with this operation is done through a loan from the state, which is what Germany required as collateral.
"The G-20 failed to be decisive since the European crisis," says an expert
"European authorities should take decisive action to get rid of the debt crisis," he said Lagarde, who also stressed the need to "revive demand, starting again the engine of growth." "The risks of another global recession are real," Sticking the same Friday, the Institute of International Finance, which groups the world's leading banks. "The message from other countries to Europe is clear: their inability to resolve the crisis, weakened our growth prospects, puts us at risk," says De la Rocha, "and when we say Europe is now called Germany."
The leaders of the major emerging countries-China, Brazil, Russia, India, have meaning only in the preamble to the summit in Los Cabos. But will be felt. They have yet to specify how to provide 430,000 million dollars the IMF said in April have collected from several countries to address the crisis, an agreement already took down the U.S. and Canada. "There is much reluctance among emerging to give money that can go to rich countries like the Europeans, without counterparts in the transfer of power in the IMF," the researcher points Alternatives Foundation. Especially when the agreements already reached, transfer 6% of the voting rights of emerging rich countries, giving two seats on the executive committee, are blocked in the U.S. Congress.
The summit in Los Cabos clarify if possible twist again the hackneyed quotation from the philosopher Jose Ortega y Gasset: Europe as a problem, the G-20 as a solution. Although it is also likely to leave this mess to be re multilateral ... the Bundestag. Merkel's coalition needs the opposition to pass before the end of the month the Fiscal Pact that imposed on the rest of the eurozone. In return, Social Democrats and Greens would force the German government to give the green light for EU funding for new stimulus measures, to some formula of joint management of excessive public debt of the euro countries. A paradox.
More Protectionism
A. Bolaños
"For the first time since 2008, the report on trade restrictions is alarming," he proclaimed last week Pascal Lamy, director general of the World Trade Organization (WTO). One of the achievements that have exhibited over the G-20 has been resigned to increase protectionist measures, its commitment to withdraw existing before 2013. According to many of the experts, these policies contributed to the thirties of last century, to convert the 1929 stock market crash in the Great Depression. But now, with the new spate of economic crisis, commitment cracks.
"In the past seven months has continued to increase the number of new measures which restrict or may restrict trade, something more serious if one takes into account the slowness with which existing measures are removed," said Lamy. The report referred to the G-20 also highlights a deterioration of conditions for international investment in some countries. One paragraph in particular referred to as "expropriation" approved by one of the member countries, a thinly veiled allusion to Argentina to nationalize YPF, a subsidiary of the Spanish oil company Repsol.
As from the first G-20 summit in Washington, leaders of rich countries and emerging again on the Doha Round, the negotiations begun in 2001 to further liberalize international trade. And again note its failure. Nor does it seem that the alternative path outlined in the Cannes summit last November, to shape the issues and agreed that it would benefit the poorest countries, has delivered results for now.
At the summit in Los Cabos hardly be news in the long and complex financial market reform, as the Financial Stability Board has no plans to publish major reports until the end of the year. Nor expect major changes in the revision of the OECD tax information exchange, which will built on bilateral agreements, proof that tax havens have passed with ease. And Mexico, which has given priority to two aspects, food security and infrastructure projects, the full agenda of development that bequeathed the Seoul Summit, has resigned to open another front: how to reconcile and growth and the environment.
It is not the only paradox of a summit against the grain. The organization cites a government of Felipe Calderon to expire, which has advanced its conclusion to bypass the administrative halt after the Mexican elections. And that makes a number of reports that the G-20 responsible for making decisions, one of the main courses of action, not on time.
In addition, the meeting in Los Cabos is also strongly influenced by other electoral contests: the proximity of the U.S. presidential (in November) implies that any act of the administration of Barack Obama to stay in that, in gesture. The G-20 is also very aware of the Greek election results, especially if it requires leaving the arena to calm financial markets. Another thing is that the debate on the possibility of renegotiating the bailout of Greece passes the threshold into the meeting room of the Sherpas, the senior officials who do the dirty work. "Europe is very jealous of their decisions, not going to argue with others," predicts Federico Steinberg, a researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano.
more informationGermany castling against Europe, Claudi PEREZEurope foto'Una unrecognizable ', by J. I. TORREBLANCAHollande wants 120,000 million for the European economy
Since the G-20 leaders meet in Toronto (Canada) in mid 2010, the fourth summit of this forum, since the financial crisis focused on the European government bond market, the script is repeated. All other governments, with the U.S. in the lead, extols every laborious step in the euro area, while you are urged to act more decisively. "Since the European crisis, the G-20 is no longer resolving the fund was in 2009. And the question is that now the crisis is entering its deeper stages, "said Manuel de la Rocha, coordinator of international economics Alternatives Foundation.
The evils Europeans and hijacked the agenda of the summit in Cannes, at the end of last year, best known for the intense pressures of Merkel and French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, that Greece renounce a referendum on the second rescue plan for Italy to accept the supervision of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). That was the beginning of the end of the Governments of George Papandreou and Silvio Berlusconi surveyed by Lucas Papademos technocrats and Mario Monti.
Since then, European solutions, always partial, always late, have high financial stress and uncertainty among the world leaders. The repetition of the Greek elections, unable to form government in May, show the limits of a bailout conditional on a host of adjustment measures, depressed. And the bad reception of the plan to rescue markets Spanish banks, for making the government responsible Rajoy of the loan, fueling the need for swift and decisive decisions. A requirement that you can only focus on Germany, the catalyst of the European response to the crisis, the country that has the final say in major reforms that lie ahead for the euro area.
The IMF and the U.S. leading the pressure for Germany to open the hand
"You know what to do to make monetary union work should clarify soon," said Wednesday the U.S. Treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, referring to the debate on how to articulate union and fiscal union bank in the euro area . "It would be unfair to consider that Germany is the only source of trouble," he said in one of those apologies that sound like accusations, before adding: "Everyone is watching."
Just hours later, before the German parliament, Merkel resumed the thread where he had left Geithner. "All eyes are on Germany," Chancellor conceded, "but we have an infinite power, our responsibility as Europe's largest economy is to deploy our strength in a credible way." The Conservative leader was explicit in setting the limits of the G-20. "To all those in Los Cabos is expected of Germany a miracle solution either Eurobonds, changes in rescue funds, a European mechanism to guarantee bank deposits, billions and many other things," he said, "All the plans, all measures will be an illusion if they go beyond the capacity of Germany. "
In recent weeks, the Executive Merkel has resisted what they branded as miracle solutions: everything that raises even more German involvement in supporting partners in trouble without the euro area has been provided with sufficient power States to prevent re-turn (in the deficit, private debt, competitiveness) of policies that Berlin considered virtuous. The German Government believes that the necessary transfer of sovereignty has barely begun. And until then, any of the proposals deck-pump money into the bank without going through the States, to encourage direct intervention in the markets of the European Central Bank jointly assume the risk of public debt States of the euro would risk the credibility of Germany, which would push the euro crisis to another dimension.
"In Los Cabos will be a lot of pressure, but I doubt that Germany change its position, is very closed to outside influences. Only the U.S. has the capacity to be heard, "says the researcher Steinberg, also a professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid. As you approach the summit, the chorus of complaints rises in pitch. And not everyone has been so subtle as the secretary of the U.S. Treasury.
The rescue of Spanish banks and Greece also influence the appointment
"I do not know if the German government needs to leave the euro Greece to explain to its citizens why they need to do things like union or bank Eurobonds", shot George Osborne, Britain's finance minister. "I would ask European leaders to act as the U.S. has asked," raised the Japanese Finance Minister, Jun Azumi. His Australian counterpart, Wayne Swan, reproached the euro area "has ruined several months of relative calm" after the two injections of liquidity multimillion practiced the ECB in December and February.
Cracks in the common position of the EU are increasingly evident. The European Council President, Herman van Rompuy, called Friday a video conference between the leaders of European countries of the G-20 (Mariano Rajoy included) to iron out differences. A meeting preceded by calls by French President François Hollande, to revive growth-thesis in which aligns with Monti and Obama, in sharp contrast to the known negative Merkel - "do not want growth programs based on more debt "-. And the acid criticism of European Commission President Jose Manuel Durao Barroso, German reluctance: "I'm sure that all capitals are aware of the urgency of this."
Also striking was the reaction of the Spanish government, just days after presenting the bank bailout as a credit of up to 100,000 million euros "on very favorable terms," achieved through pressure Executive Rajoy. The Foreign Minister, Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo, Germany demanded a vision "broader, long-term." "If a country thrown to the wolves, it will affect everyone," said the minister. In the week that the risk premium beat Spanish record since the start of the euro zone, Garcia-Margallo emphasized the need for "a rescue mechanism that works" and a "decisive action against speculation."
The presentation of the summit, Mexican Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade, said that the G-20 is an opportunity for Spain to "clear doubts" about the details of the bank rescue. But the hand of the Executive is only revealing what Rajoy capital needs arising-halfway between the minimum of 40,000 million set by the IMF and the top of the loan, 100,000 million, the work of external evaluators.
To translate Spanish to German demands, simply use the successive interventions of the IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, in the last week. "The ECB should further relax monetary conditions and use, if necessary, unconventional measures," in direct reference to rate cuts, new injections of liquidity and buying bonds from countries in trouble, just everything to what is Berlin opposed. "There must be a direct link between the resources of the bailout funds and banks," referring to the problems associated with this operation is done through a loan from the state, which is what Germany required as collateral.
"The G-20 failed to be decisive since the European crisis," says an expert
"European authorities should take decisive action to get rid of the debt crisis," he said Lagarde, who also stressed the need to "revive demand, starting again the engine of growth." "The risks of another global recession are real," Sticking the same Friday, the Institute of International Finance, which groups the world's leading banks. "The message from other countries to Europe is clear: their inability to resolve the crisis, weakened our growth prospects, puts us at risk," says De la Rocha, "and when we say Europe is now called Germany."
The leaders of the major emerging countries-China, Brazil, Russia, India, have meaning only in the preamble to the summit in Los Cabos. But will be felt. They have yet to specify how to provide 430,000 million dollars the IMF said in April have collected from several countries to address the crisis, an agreement already took down the U.S. and Canada. "There is much reluctance among emerging to give money that can go to rich countries like the Europeans, without counterparts in the transfer of power in the IMF," the researcher points Alternatives Foundation. Especially when the agreements already reached, transfer 6% of the voting rights of emerging rich countries, giving two seats on the executive committee, are blocked in the U.S. Congress.
The summit in Los Cabos clarify if possible twist again the hackneyed quotation from the philosopher Jose Ortega y Gasset: Europe as a problem, the G-20 as a solution. Although it is also likely to leave this mess to be re multilateral ... the Bundestag. Merkel's coalition needs the opposition to pass before the end of the month the Fiscal Pact that imposed on the rest of the eurozone. In return, Social Democrats and Greens would force the German government to give the green light for EU funding for new stimulus measures, to some formula of joint management of excessive public debt of the euro countries. A paradox.
More Protectionism
A. Bolaños
"For the first time since 2008, the report on trade restrictions is alarming," he proclaimed last week Pascal Lamy, director general of the World Trade Organization (WTO). One of the achievements that have exhibited over the G-20 has been resigned to increase protectionist measures, its commitment to withdraw existing before 2013. According to many of the experts, these policies contributed to the thirties of last century, to convert the 1929 stock market crash in the Great Depression. But now, with the new spate of economic crisis, commitment cracks.
"In the past seven months has continued to increase the number of new measures which restrict or may restrict trade, something more serious if one takes into account the slowness with which existing measures are removed," said Lamy. The report referred to the G-20 also highlights a deterioration of conditions for international investment in some countries. One paragraph in particular referred to as "expropriation" approved by one of the member countries, a thinly veiled allusion to Argentina to nationalize YPF, a subsidiary of the Spanish oil company Repsol.
As from the first G-20 summit in Washington, leaders of rich countries and emerging again on the Doha Round, the negotiations begun in 2001 to further liberalize international trade. And again note its failure. Nor does it seem that the alternative path outlined in the Cannes summit last November, to shape the issues and agreed that it would benefit the poorest countries, has delivered results for now.
At the summit in Los Cabos hardly be news in the long and complex financial market reform, as the Financial Stability Board has no plans to publish major reports until the end of the year. Nor expect major changes in the revision of the OECD tax information exchange, which will built on bilateral agreements, proof that tax havens have passed with ease. And Mexico, which has given priority to two aspects, food security and infrastructure projects, the full agenda of development that bequeathed the Seoul Summit, has resigned to open another front: how to reconcile and growth and the environment.
メキシコのロスカボス(Los Cabos)で開かれる世界主要経済20カ国会議では、欧州金融危機を回避するために,ドイツのメルケル(Angela Merkel)首相の対応の軟化が望まれる
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