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スペインの不良債権で破綻寸前の銀行の救済は、いくらかかるか(費用)? 毎年の金利は30億0000'0000ー35億0000'0000ユーロに登り、5年で150億0000'0000ユーロー175億0000'0000ユーロ
Lo que costará este rescate
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What this bailout will cost
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Xavier Vidal-Folch 12 JUN 2012 - 00:00 CET
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Xavier Vidal-Folch 12 JUN 2012 - 00:00 CET
Contrary to our smiling authorities suggest, this bailout will cost. And high, though of course much less than not having the support provided by Europe. Probably did achieve a minimum 15,000 to 17,500 million euros? in direct cost. It is a primary estimate, pending final conditions and assuming that the unpredictable variables (growth, speed of recovery of the intervened banks ...) end up in the middle, neither utopian nor catastrophic.
Let's say the final figure of European loan used to approach the 100,000 million available. We assume, in this very carefully, to be used most of the mattress, that the consultants will aggravate the 40,000 million ahead of the IMF, gave food to its expansion, and that the auditors will find it the imagined delinquencies.
The interest rate would be around, is expected officially to 3%. It's more than it pays the European rescue fund for their debt issues. Counting commissions, and that her cousin used worse precisely because much of their ammunition, get over it, perhaps to 3.5% between 3,000 and 3,500 million annually in interest payments. This amount will fatten the budget deficit by more than three tenths, which bear bareback on the taxpayer. A mistake to forget this warning to the public. For reference, remember that this is approximately one third of adjustments to health and education (10,000 million).
However, the loan shall be granted long-term, probably 10 years. Let's say the management of bank restructuring that is dedicated to excellent, and the output of the recession leads to a suboptimal growth, but sustained no additional havoc in the asset portfolio. With that tailwind may only be required, on average, half of the decade to clean up the banks. 3.000/3.500 million five annuities: 15.000/17.500 million. This estimate assumes that some small entities entered into profitability well absorbed in the past, two / three years, and other, never simply made up his hole absorbent.
Taxpayers pay a bill of Do some 15,000 million? in the next five years
The recovery of that amount by the taxpayer is as imperative as unpredictable. The FROB will convert the bailout fund help in cases like Bankia, an injection of capital, irrecoverable until it is privatized. But in other cases may choose to give them credit facilities and grants, contingent convertible bonds, coconuts, so that interest received by them will lower the additional deficit noted.
In any case, if the annual interest 3.000/3.500 million deficit will, the willingness of the 100,000 million debt increase. Equivalent to about 10 percent of GDP. Zapatero made the debt in 68.5% of GDP in 2011, 79.8% expected Rajoy this 2012 and 82.3% in 2013. If you add those 10 points of the bailout, the stock of public debt will be at the edge of 90% of GDP, as the boundary beyond which is generally considered difficult to sustain.
The government estimates that the positive psychological impact of the bailout will reduce the risk premium on that debt, so that compensates intereres spending. But this beneficial effect will struggle with the evil fear of markets by increased debt reviewed. Perhaps that is what happened yesterday. In a level playing field, perhaps both effects are neutralized. But then, the annual interest payments will not be compensated: missing the ECB were playing for, with a return to the massive purchase of Spanish bonds. And there is still a severe indirect impact: the 10 additional debt, a) could neutralize old debt canceling, something very hard, b) could have applied to relaunch policies.
Will be discussed, therefore, counterparts. Not only of Spain to the EU. But the dealer to taxpayers. Continue.
Let's say the final figure of European loan used to approach the 100,000 million available. We assume, in this very carefully, to be used most of the mattress, that the consultants will aggravate the 40,000 million ahead of the IMF, gave food to its expansion, and that the auditors will find it the imagined delinquencies.
The interest rate would be around, is expected officially to 3%. It's more than it pays the European rescue fund for their debt issues. Counting commissions, and that her cousin used worse precisely because much of their ammunition, get over it, perhaps to 3.5% between 3,000 and 3,500 million annually in interest payments. This amount will fatten the budget deficit by more than three tenths, which bear bareback on the taxpayer. A mistake to forget this warning to the public. For reference, remember that this is approximately one third of adjustments to health and education (10,000 million).
However, the loan shall be granted long-term, probably 10 years. Let's say the management of bank restructuring that is dedicated to excellent, and the output of the recession leads to a suboptimal growth, but sustained no additional havoc in the asset portfolio. With that tailwind may only be required, on average, half of the decade to clean up the banks. 3.000/3.500 million five annuities: 15.000/17.500 million. This estimate assumes that some small entities entered into profitability well absorbed in the past, two / three years, and other, never simply made up his hole absorbent.
Taxpayers pay a bill of Do some 15,000 million? in the next five years
The recovery of that amount by the taxpayer is as imperative as unpredictable. The FROB will convert the bailout fund help in cases like Bankia, an injection of capital, irrecoverable until it is privatized. But in other cases may choose to give them credit facilities and grants, contingent convertible bonds, coconuts, so that interest received by them will lower the additional deficit noted.
In any case, if the annual interest 3.000/3.500 million deficit will, the willingness of the 100,000 million debt increase. Equivalent to about 10 percent of GDP. Zapatero made the debt in 68.5% of GDP in 2011, 79.8% expected Rajoy this 2012 and 82.3% in 2013. If you add those 10 points of the bailout, the stock of public debt will be at the edge of 90% of GDP, as the boundary beyond which is generally considered difficult to sustain.
The government estimates that the positive psychological impact of the bailout will reduce the risk premium on that debt, so that compensates intereres spending. But this beneficial effect will struggle with the evil fear of markets by increased debt reviewed. Perhaps that is what happened yesterday. In a level playing field, perhaps both effects are neutralized. But then, the annual interest payments will not be compensated: missing the ECB were playing for, with a return to the massive purchase of Spanish bonds. And there is still a severe indirect impact: the 10 additional debt, a) could neutralize old debt canceling, something very hard, b) could have applied to relaunch policies.
Will be discussed, therefore, counterparts. Not only of Spain to the EU. But the dealer to taxpayers. Continue.
スペインの不良債権で破綻寸前の銀行の救済は、いくらかかるか(費用)? 毎年の金利は30億0000'0000ー35億0000'0000ユーロに登り、5年で150億0000'0000ユーロー175億0000'0000ユーロ
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