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格付け会社のFITCHは、スペインの財政赤字削減は、2014年までにGDPの6%、2018年までには3%にやっと落ち着くだろうと予測
Fitch calcula que España incumplirá los objetivos de déficit por un amplio margen
La agencia augura graves consecuencias sobre las grandes potencias si Grecia sale del euro
Ve seguro una nueva barra libre de liquidez del BCE a tres años si se cumple la amenaza
Fitch estimates that Spain will default the deficit targets by a wide margin
The agency predicts serious consequences for the great powers if Greece leaves the euro
Sure see a new open bar ECB liquidity to three years if they meet the threat
Alvaro Romero Madrid 12 JUN 2012 - 10:32 CET
The agency predicts serious consequences for the great powers if Greece leaves the euro
Sure see a new open bar ECB liquidity to three years if they meet the threat
Alvaro Romero Madrid 12 JUN 2012 - 10:32 CET
Spain break its budgetary targets in 2012 and 2013 by a considerable margin, as has been predicted on Tuesday the managing director of sovereign ratings at Fitch, an agency that just four days ago dealt a sharp cut to the credit rating of the country. Also, Ed Parker has warned at a meeting in Oslo financial Spain continue to have a high current account deficit and market sentiment towards the country is still very fragile despite the government's decision to ask for a ransom of up to 100,000 million its European partners to clean up the banking.
The omen of a director Fitch adds to bad forecasts of major international organizations like the IMF Interancional or the European Commission, which estimates the budget gap in the Spanish State will continue over 6% at least until 2014, it is a significant breach. Worse, in any case, is the scene that draws the institution he presides Christine Lagarde, advancing the country will not return to 3% limit imposed by Brussels until 2018.
Spain pledged in principle to the European Commission to reduce its deficit from 8.9% which closed 2011 at 5.3% this year and the sacrosanct 3% in 2013. However, given the difficulties of achieving these objectives in full recession and the burden of spending cuts, the EU executive has agreed to give a year later, which still represents a formidable effort of settings. To earn this breath of fresh air, Spain must present convincing budgets for next year and Brussels has already made its recommendations as to where these accounts must be: increase in VAT, taxes Environmental Services, more quickly in delaying the retirement age, expenditure control in the communities or hardening of unemployment benefits.
more informationFitch downgrades Spain's note three steps in case of bankingThe agency cut the credit ratings of Santander and BBVASee the special on the euro crisis and the bailout of Spain
Parker has also issued a stern warning on all of the eurozone at the risk of any outflow of Greece's euro. "There is great uncertainty about the fate of Greece," he added while another Ficth directors present at the event, James Longsdon, considered as "inevitable" third open bar ECB liquidity for long-term banks in case of adhering the worst predictions about the future of this country.
As Parker explained, the Monetary Union countries and their credit ratings are under "great pressure", as his colleagues have also highlighted Moody's in recent hours. The novelty is that now increases the risk that hangs over the great powers whose debt is rated at an honors degree, AAA, and that equals the maximum degree of safety for investors, but also remember that they gave this note to the famous subprime mortgages that triggered the financial crisis.
If there is no "light at the end of the tunnel in the near future" will increase the risk of rupture, continued before noting that if policy makers continue their habit of making decisions "to get by" and to postpone the solutions until the last minute, increase the cost to weather the crisis. The main concern now facing the eurozone is the risk of infection causing a departure from Greece of the euro, something I think Parker agrees with the general market, as evidenced by declines in bags and increased pressure on debt of the countries under suspicion, Spain, yes, but also Italy, although Parker clarifies that their situations are "very different" -. Thus, if the direct impact of the extreme possibility of a Greek escape would be small in economic terms, the consequences of the domino effect that would be generated would be tremendous, he insisted.
The comparison between Spain and Italy explained Parker told Bloomberg that the Alpine country's banks is much stronger than the Spanish, and has indicated that the risk, if any, pivots on its financing costs under the weight public debt, which reached 120%. In any case, Fitch is forecasting that do not have to need help from its European partners.
Fitch believes that the bailout faces "only one of the risks facing Spain"
In Europe and after three and a half years of crisis, the countries that still retain the triple A for the three rating agencies that dominate the business world are only four: Germany, Luxembourg, Finland and Holland. Spain or Italy, who arrived in 2008 as part of this select club, have seen their credit ratings are despeñaban as increased debt problems, deficits and lack of growth.
The very Fitch downgraded the rating of Spain in three steps last week, which is now in BBB rated note as well but that is only two steps to suspend and fall in the level considered suitable only for speculators: the junk bond. In addition, the left negative outlook, indicating that there are more options to re-take the scissors to make a decision in the opposite direction.
Fitch downgrades justified by the cost of bank restructuring and the high indebtedness of Spain. He estimates that the cost of recapitalization is between 60,000 and 100,000 million euros, the equivalent in the worst case to 9% of GDP. So far, the process cost estimated at 30,000 million financial restructuring cost. At this point, since the top of the credit granted by the Eurogroup agrees with their calculations, and acknowledged yesterday that the bailout is not an additional risk that could lead to a further reduction on your credit rating.
In its opinion of Parker, "this package can help stabilize the ratings at the current level, but clearly this is only one of the risks faced by Spain and its rating." Even in crisis, you are never safe, "If apreciásemos worsening or more widespread intensification of the crisis in the eurozone, these new negative news could lead to further downgrades," he warned.
The omen of a director Fitch adds to bad forecasts of major international organizations like the IMF Interancional or the European Commission, which estimates the budget gap in the Spanish State will continue over 6% at least until 2014, it is a significant breach. Worse, in any case, is the scene that draws the institution he presides Christine Lagarde, advancing the country will not return to 3% limit imposed by Brussels until 2018.
Spain pledged in principle to the European Commission to reduce its deficit from 8.9% which closed 2011 at 5.3% this year and the sacrosanct 3% in 2013. However, given the difficulties of achieving these objectives in full recession and the burden of spending cuts, the EU executive has agreed to give a year later, which still represents a formidable effort of settings. To earn this breath of fresh air, Spain must present convincing budgets for next year and Brussels has already made its recommendations as to where these accounts must be: increase in VAT, taxes Environmental Services, more quickly in delaying the retirement age, expenditure control in the communities or hardening of unemployment benefits.
more informationFitch downgrades Spain's note three steps in case of bankingThe agency cut the credit ratings of Santander and BBVASee the special on the euro crisis and the bailout of Spain
Parker has also issued a stern warning on all of the eurozone at the risk of any outflow of Greece's euro. "There is great uncertainty about the fate of Greece," he added while another Ficth directors present at the event, James Longsdon, considered as "inevitable" third open bar ECB liquidity for long-term banks in case of adhering the worst predictions about the future of this country.
As Parker explained, the Monetary Union countries and their credit ratings are under "great pressure", as his colleagues have also highlighted Moody's in recent hours. The novelty is that now increases the risk that hangs over the great powers whose debt is rated at an honors degree, AAA, and that equals the maximum degree of safety for investors, but also remember that they gave this note to the famous subprime mortgages that triggered the financial crisis.
If there is no "light at the end of the tunnel in the near future" will increase the risk of rupture, continued before noting that if policy makers continue their habit of making decisions "to get by" and to postpone the solutions until the last minute, increase the cost to weather the crisis. The main concern now facing the eurozone is the risk of infection causing a departure from Greece of the euro, something I think Parker agrees with the general market, as evidenced by declines in bags and increased pressure on debt of the countries under suspicion, Spain, yes, but also Italy, although Parker clarifies that their situations are "very different" -. Thus, if the direct impact of the extreme possibility of a Greek escape would be small in economic terms, the consequences of the domino effect that would be generated would be tremendous, he insisted.
The comparison between Spain and Italy explained Parker told Bloomberg that the Alpine country's banks is much stronger than the Spanish, and has indicated that the risk, if any, pivots on its financing costs under the weight public debt, which reached 120%. In any case, Fitch is forecasting that do not have to need help from its European partners.
Fitch believes that the bailout faces "only one of the risks facing Spain"
In Europe and after three and a half years of crisis, the countries that still retain the triple A for the three rating agencies that dominate the business world are only four: Germany, Luxembourg, Finland and Holland. Spain or Italy, who arrived in 2008 as part of this select club, have seen their credit ratings are despeñaban as increased debt problems, deficits and lack of growth.
The very Fitch downgraded the rating of Spain in three steps last week, which is now in BBB rated note as well but that is only two steps to suspend and fall in the level considered suitable only for speculators: the junk bond. In addition, the left negative outlook, indicating that there are more options to re-take the scissors to make a decision in the opposite direction.
Fitch downgrades justified by the cost of bank restructuring and the high indebtedness of Spain. He estimates that the cost of recapitalization is between 60,000 and 100,000 million euros, the equivalent in the worst case to 9% of GDP. So far, the process cost estimated at 30,000 million financial restructuring cost. At this point, since the top of the credit granted by the Eurogroup agrees with their calculations, and acknowledged yesterday that the bailout is not an additional risk that could lead to a further reduction on your credit rating.
In its opinion of Parker, "this package can help stabilize the ratings at the current level, but clearly this is only one of the risks faced by Spain and its rating." Even in crisis, you are never safe, "If apreciásemos worsening or more widespread intensification of the crisis in the eurozone, these new negative news could lead to further downgrades," he warned.
格付け会社のFITCHは、スペインの財政赤字削減は、2014年までにGDPの6%、2018年までには3%にやっと落ち着くだろうと予測
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