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ギリシアの選挙結果にも係わらず、スペインの破綻寸前の銀行救済の融資を公的債務と計算する事で、スペインの国債の支払い能力に対する不安から、スペインの10年国債の金利は過去最高の7'285%に、スペインの株式市場も2'52%の下落,{このまま高金利が続くと2週間くらいでスペインは支払い能力をうしない、破綻する(救済される)?}
Las dudas sobre la solvencia de España se agudizan a pesar del resultado en Grecia
El tipo del bono a 10 años supera el 7% y la prima llega a 589 puntos
El Ibex borra las ganancias de la apertura y cae más de un 1%
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Doubts about the solvency of Spain are exacerbated despite the outcome in Greece
The rate of the 10-year bond more than 7% and the premium reaches 589 points
The Dow erased opening gains and falls more than 1%
Evolution of live markets
Lafont Isabel Madrid 18 JUN 2012 - 15:07 CET
The rate of the 10-year bond more than 7% and the premium reaches 589 points
The Dow erased opening gains and falls more than 1%
Evolution of live markets
Lafont Isabel Madrid 18 JUN 2012 - 15:07 CET
The result of the elections held yesterday in Greece has cleared an uncertainty factor (will not be the first country to leave the eurozone, at least for now), but has laid bare the growing doubts about the solvency of Spain. Although Europe has committed to provide 100,000 million to clean up the Spanish banks, investors do doubt accounts and an economy unable to generate income, with a rich exporting impoverished and unable to pay all debts accumulated.
This explains the dramatic response of the risk premium, excess return that investors demand to 10-year bond compared to German, a measure of the solvency of the Spanish sovereign debt that remains alert levels. After starting the day at 543 basis points was down to 529 at the opening, then launched a comeback that has been sprayed all previous records as it fell by 589 points.
The type of Spanish 10-year bond has reached 7.285%, record high since the euro came into force in 1999 and a critical level, since more expensive, no doubt, the funding of the next Treasury debt issues. Investors demand more yield investments perceived as more risky (as a basic behavior of the market) and with the current level of Spanish types, the interest burden is unbearable. In practice, Spanish sovereign debt is about to be expelled from the market.
Source: Bloomberg. / COUNTRY
Greece asked for his first save (May 2010) when he came to 8.5%, the same level as Portugal in April 2011. However, Ireland was enough to touch 8.1% (November 2010) to seek international assistance.
This week the Treasury is subjected to an examination of the markets that can be decisive. Tomorrow will try to capture between 2,000 and 3,000 million in letters to 0:18 months, and Thursday, between 1,000 and 2,000 million euros in bonds to two, three and five years, expiring in 2014, 2015 and 2017.
These are the first issues that are made after the cut three steps last week performed the rating agency risks Moody's Spanish debt, until it is a step in what is known as junk bond (investment only suitable for investors willing to take much risk).
If the closing of the doors of the market, would be inevitable to address some form of debt restructuring, which would, necessarily, that the bondholders would end up having to accept a remission in their positions, as happened in Greece in March.
In the case of Spain, it is possible that the bailout to financial institutions also affect owners of bank debt (such as preference shares), which could end up being converted into equity at a discount, which would be a material loss.
The Spanish stock market share at the start of the meeting, the enthusiasm of the European markets for the victory of the conservative New Democracy in Greece, which is expected to form government with the socialists of PASOK. This has cleared the imminent risk of rupture of the eurozone would have involved-possibly-the victory of other policy options more belligerent with the conditions imposed by international lenders in exchange for the bailout last March granted the Hellenic country.
The Dow logged a 1.9% rise in just the indicator has remained in the area of profit for one hour. Remaining thereafter in the red and has reached 2.48% left to stand at a minimum on the day of 6552.2 points. In the afternoon we came to losing 2.52% and stood at 6,549.6 points.
European shares also lost enthusiasm for the Greek election result and have returned to go with the uncertainty hanging over the Spanish sovereign. After advancing more than 1% within a few minutes of trading, the gains are moderated, and by the 1445, London was down 0.01%, 0.67% Paris, Frankfurt rose 0.15%, while Milan was down 2.53%.
The euro reached $ 1.2748 up to in Asian trading hours, but by evening had already fallen below $ 1.26 and to the 15.00 and traded at 1.2594.
Italy also is under the strict supervision of a market that is suspicious of its high debt, 120% of GDP. The risk premium Italian remains very high (on Friday closed at 448 basis points and now has reached 477), but the Italian Treasury debt costs you 10 years to one percentage point less than the Spanish. The reason is that Italy remains an industrial power (despite the strong competition from Asia in costs) and export capacity. The type of Italian 10-year bond has soared to 6.171% today after starting the day at 5.926%.
Far from being a salve, 100,000 million requested by the Spanish Government for banks added fuel to a fire without extinguishing: From the first quarter of 2008, the Spanish debt has doubled since late March amounted to 72.1 % of GDP.
The bank bailout counted as public debt (as made clear the European statistical office, Eurostat) and this could soar to 90% of GDP at the end of this year as the Budget had already been established to be 80% ( pre-petition bank aid).
The cumbersome management by the Spanish Government, the first nationalization of Bankia and after the request for assistance for the whole banking system has generated more questions than answers. Yesterday, the World Bank President Robert Zoellick criticized the lack of specificity of the plan. "They had a great cartridge and I have missed," he said on the eve of the G-20 that begins today in Los Cabos (Mexico).
Furthermore, doubts remain about the conditions, terms, European institution which will provide the funds, the priority will these over Treasury debt to be repaid when, if contributions are made to entities in the form of loans or capital ...
Not even yet know the exact amount which amount will be injected in the states, but that question will be resolved this week, as it is intended to be made public the first independent assessment of the Spanish banking sector balance sheets commissioned by the Government to consultants Roland Berger and Oliver Wyman. These are limited, however, a stress test, a test of the strength of bank accounts to a deterioration of economic conditions and determine own resources they would need in such conditions.
Although the Spanish government continues to seek the intervention of the European Central Bank (ECB), this is resisting pressure to solve a liquidity base are structural problems. The finance minister, Cristobal Montoro, has claimed today the issuer of the common currency to respond "very strongly" to "insistent pressure" of markets. "The ECB must respond firmly, with all reliability, these markets are still trying to hinder the development of joint project of the euro," Montoro said in his speech in the Senate to defend the draft State Budget for 2012.
However, German Joerg Asmussen, executive board member of the ECB has insisted that the institution can not replace the reforms must be carried out by governments.
This explains the dramatic response of the risk premium, excess return that investors demand to 10-year bond compared to German, a measure of the solvency of the Spanish sovereign debt that remains alert levels. After starting the day at 543 basis points was down to 529 at the opening, then launched a comeback that has been sprayed all previous records as it fell by 589 points.
The type of Spanish 10-year bond has reached 7.285%, record high since the euro came into force in 1999 and a critical level, since more expensive, no doubt, the funding of the next Treasury debt issues. Investors demand more yield investments perceived as more risky (as a basic behavior of the market) and with the current level of Spanish types, the interest burden is unbearable. In practice, Spanish sovereign debt is about to be expelled from the market.
Source: Bloomberg. / COUNTRY
Greece asked for his first save (May 2010) when he came to 8.5%, the same level as Portugal in April 2011. However, Ireland was enough to touch 8.1% (November 2010) to seek international assistance.
This week the Treasury is subjected to an examination of the markets that can be decisive. Tomorrow will try to capture between 2,000 and 3,000 million in letters to 0:18 months, and Thursday, between 1,000 and 2,000 million euros in bonds to two, three and five years, expiring in 2014, 2015 and 2017.
These are the first issues that are made after the cut three steps last week performed the rating agency risks Moody's Spanish debt, until it is a step in what is known as junk bond (investment only suitable for investors willing to take much risk).
If the closing of the doors of the market, would be inevitable to address some form of debt restructuring, which would, necessarily, that the bondholders would end up having to accept a remission in their positions, as happened in Greece in March.
In the case of Spain, it is possible that the bailout to financial institutions also affect owners of bank debt (such as preference shares), which could end up being converted into equity at a discount, which would be a material loss.
The Spanish stock market share at the start of the meeting, the enthusiasm of the European markets for the victory of the conservative New Democracy in Greece, which is expected to form government with the socialists of PASOK. This has cleared the imminent risk of rupture of the eurozone would have involved-possibly-the victory of other policy options more belligerent with the conditions imposed by international lenders in exchange for the bailout last March granted the Hellenic country.
The Dow logged a 1.9% rise in just the indicator has remained in the area of profit for one hour. Remaining thereafter in the red and has reached 2.48% left to stand at a minimum on the day of 6552.2 points. In the afternoon we came to losing 2.52% and stood at 6,549.6 points.
European shares also lost enthusiasm for the Greek election result and have returned to go with the uncertainty hanging over the Spanish sovereign. After advancing more than 1% within a few minutes of trading, the gains are moderated, and by the 1445, London was down 0.01%, 0.67% Paris, Frankfurt rose 0.15%, while Milan was down 2.53%.
The euro reached $ 1.2748 up to in Asian trading hours, but by evening had already fallen below $ 1.26 and to the 15.00 and traded at 1.2594.
Italy also is under the strict supervision of a market that is suspicious of its high debt, 120% of GDP. The risk premium Italian remains very high (on Friday closed at 448 basis points and now has reached 477), but the Italian Treasury debt costs you 10 years to one percentage point less than the Spanish. The reason is that Italy remains an industrial power (despite the strong competition from Asia in costs) and export capacity. The type of Italian 10-year bond has soared to 6.171% today after starting the day at 5.926%.
Far from being a salve, 100,000 million requested by the Spanish Government for banks added fuel to a fire without extinguishing: From the first quarter of 2008, the Spanish debt has doubled since late March amounted to 72.1 % of GDP.
The bank bailout counted as public debt (as made clear the European statistical office, Eurostat) and this could soar to 90% of GDP at the end of this year as the Budget had already been established to be 80% ( pre-petition bank aid).
The cumbersome management by the Spanish Government, the first nationalization of Bankia and after the request for assistance for the whole banking system has generated more questions than answers. Yesterday, the World Bank President Robert Zoellick criticized the lack of specificity of the plan. "They had a great cartridge and I have missed," he said on the eve of the G-20 that begins today in Los Cabos (Mexico).
Furthermore, doubts remain about the conditions, terms, European institution which will provide the funds, the priority will these over Treasury debt to be repaid when, if contributions are made to entities in the form of loans or capital ...
Not even yet know the exact amount which amount will be injected in the states, but that question will be resolved this week, as it is intended to be made public the first independent assessment of the Spanish banking sector balance sheets commissioned by the Government to consultants Roland Berger and Oliver Wyman. These are limited, however, a stress test, a test of the strength of bank accounts to a deterioration of economic conditions and determine own resources they would need in such conditions.
Although the Spanish government continues to seek the intervention of the European Central Bank (ECB), this is resisting pressure to solve a liquidity base are structural problems. The finance minister, Cristobal Montoro, has claimed today the issuer of the common currency to respond "very strongly" to "insistent pressure" of markets. "The ECB must respond firmly, with all reliability, these markets are still trying to hinder the development of joint project of the euro," Montoro said in his speech in the Senate to defend the draft State Budget for 2012.
However, German Joerg Asmussen, executive board member of the ECB has insisted that the institution can not replace the reforms must be carried out by governments.
ギリシアの選挙結果にも係わらず、スペインの破綻寸前の銀行救済の融資を公的債務と計算する事で、スペインの国債の支払い能力に対する不安から、スペインの10年国債の金利は過去最高の7'285%に、スペインの株式市場も2'52%の下落,{このまま高金利が続くと2週間くらいでスペインは支払い能力をうしない、破綻する(救済される)?}
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