http://elpais.com
スペインの金融危機で、銀行間融資の停止、外国への資金銀行送金の規制などで、ヨーロッパの金融危機は深まる
La eurozona se resquebraja
La crisis revierte los avances en la integración financiera y amenaza la unión monetaria
The euro zone cracks
The crisis reversed the progress in financial integration and monetary union threat
Alicia Gonzalez Madrid 3 JUN 2012 - 01:00 CET
The crisis reversed the progress in financial integration and monetary union threat
Alicia Gonzalez Madrid 3 JUN 2012 - 01:00 CET
When Spain raised the entry into the euro, economists of the Bank of Spain set to work with different hypotheses about the problems that could face the Spanish economy in the monetary union. In one of those meetings, the head of the department of education, José Luis Malo de Molina, said: "All problems can be overcome, better or worse, unless breaks the interbank market." A very specific reference. "Well that's exactly what is happening now," says one of those economists today. The alarms have jumped: the interbank market is closed for months, capital flight accelerated euro, savers withdrawing deposits, credit is nationalized. The euro does not hold water.
The system is based on the interbank market and which is closed for months. It banks lend money to each other at a time, most within a day or a week at most. European banks have long since stopped lending money. Data from the last newsletter of the Bank of Spain indicate that Spanish banks were provided throughout the month of May 54.446 million euros in total, half a year ago and three times less than in May 2009.
The conclusion is obvious. They do not trust each other and this has forced the intervention of European Central Bank (ECB). "One of the reasons for the massive liquidity auctions of the ECB in December and February is the total closure of interbank" explains Claudio Ortea, investment director at Lombard Odier in Spain. Also explain the relaxation in the quality of assets banks can submit as collateral to the monetary authority. Anything to ensure liquidity.
Moreover. Peter Praet, Executive Board Member of the ECB, admitted at a recent conference in Milan that "the European sovereign crisis has caused a decline in financial integration in the region" and that, in fact, "the weakness of the EU to manage crisis is largely responsible for the partial re-nationalization of major financial market segments, "something inconsistent with a monetary union.
Analysts speak of 'Balkanization' of the European banking
Proof of that financial re is what has happened to Crédit Agricole. The French company bought in 2006 the Greek bank Emporiki, now in serious financial difficulties and has been excluded from the emergency liquidity lines from the central bank of Greece on the grounds that the matrix had sufficient funds to recapitalize its subsidiary. Its CEO, Jean-Paul Chifflet, attributes, however, that the Greek authorities consider them "foreigners" and break, thus the single market rules.
The free movement of capital is one of the founding principles not only of monetary union but of the European Union in its origins, the common market. But in recent months, and more in recent weeks, the free movement of capital is not being met and this threatens the future of the euro. Because of Credit Agricole is not an isolated case.
The media echoed this week of the restrictions imposed by German regulators at Italian bank Unicredit when repatriating funds from its German subsidiary to the parent, hit by severe stress. And the example has spread. The Austrian authorities have limited the transfer of funds from the states of the country to its subsidiaries in the former Eastern Europe, a region completely dependent on foreign credit. But these limitations have been extended beyond the former communist states and applied, in fact, to any country.
A manager of the Italian bank, passing through Madrid, recently explained the consequences of credit that nationalization is for day to day as Unicredit entity, with 57% of its business outside Italy. "Where better are the consequences of this rupture of the market is in South Tyrol, a region in northeast Italy bordering Austria. The offices have to charge interest rates far superior to Italian customers against the Austrians, who often live in the next village. " This is what some analysts called the balkanization European banking. "Even if the euro zone survives, the single financial market can not do it," they said.
The ECB supports the weak management of the crisis has favored the re-credit
No shortage of reasons. The phenomenon of financial re also extends to public debt, a process that resembles that of Japan after the housing and financial crisis of the nineties. According to Fitch, the proportion of Spanish and Italian public debt held by foreign investors has increased its downward trend in the first three months of the year. If the end of 2011, 40% of Spanish debt was in foreign hands, in late March, the percentage had dropped to 34%. In 2008, this proportion was 60%. In the Italian case, the debt held by foreigners is around 32%, but its starting level four years ago was only 50%.
"Outward foreign investors have been compensated by a significant increase in flows from the Eurosystem," Fitch explained in a note to clients. That is, Spanish and Italian banks have used the liquidity provided by the ECB auctions December and February to cover the march of foreign investors and secure funding for their states, deepening the ties between the banking crisis and sovereign crisis.
Capital controls or ECB
Fearing what financiers call a run-a withdrawal of deposits triggered by the panic in the population, some experts raised the possibility of reinstating capital controls in the eurozone. Hans Lorenzen, credit analyst at Citigroup, believes that in a scenario out of Greece's euro "as is inevitable in the transition period" and argues further that the limitation of free movement of capital "may be even compatible with the treaty, which includes an article on the exceptional ".
However, Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney, it drops. "If not done at this time, when it has stopped Greece's capital, I see no reason to impose controls are now" and commitment to an intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB) to try to stabilize the market. "The European Central Bank will intervene in the market before August with a massive new liquidity auctions with measures of quantitative easing," he says. "There are several circumstances of: Greek elections, the results of the audit of the Spanish financial system and a high financing needs of the Italian Treasury in the summer."
Ever since the rescue of Greece, in May 2010, the aversion of investors to the European periphery has been increasingly emphasizing. Only now it is down, apparently, is the investor appetite for any kind of active European just 2,000 million of capital from abroad were used to buy debt in the eurozone, according to Nomura.
"Late last year, the inverter outputs some positions in the euro were to some extent limited by the relocation of investments within the union. For example, American investors sold bonds to buy Irish and Portuguese German and French bonds. He fled from the periphery and core countries argued for. But in these first months of the year, there has been little demand for euro-zone debt among foreigners in general, "says Ylva Cederholm, a strategist at Nomura in London.
Thus, the eurozone does not attend only to the growing distrust of international investors, but are the Europeans themselves who seek refuge from their investments abroad. Japanese bank data indicate that the euro has made three consecutive months of purchases of foreign assets by regional investors. In March alone, the balance reached 60,000 million euros, "the largest investment abroad in the past year and a half."
Public debt held by foreign investors falls
"A disturbing trend since late 2011 is that European residents have left to repatriate capital from abroad. Repatriation, which represents a purchase of euros, limited, in our opinion, the depreciation of the euro during the latter part of 2011. In the first quarter of this year, that trend has not only stopped but has changed direction and residents of the euro began to buy assets denominated in other currencies, bringing the decline in value of the euro. The trend began in the first quarter of 2012 and seems to have continued in April, although it seems there was some return again in May, "says Cederholm.
"It's what largely explains the collapse of the euro in recent weeks," said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney. "And not just the euro, because the fear of a global recession has caused the downfall of the major emerging currencies, seeking refuge in assets as safe as the dollar and Swiss franc."
The outflow of funds from the euro explains the recent collapse of the currency
In Spain, the trend is repeated. The latest data released by the Bank of Spain indicate that the resources withdrawn by international investors and put the Spanish abroad in March reached the 66,200 million, a record. Overall, in the first three months of capital flight amounted to 97,090 million, as much money as in all of 2011.
The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, ruled in the conference organized by the Association of Economy that these figures correspond to a capital flight, which are the result of fear of savers, and attributed more to the problems of financing banking. But the truth is that law firms in Madrid are awash in customer questions about the consequences of their savings out of the country and what the appropriate steps to do so. The investment fund managers are bombarded with questions about whether or not to invest their savings in assets outside the euro. "But large investors, but small savers, that's amazing," admits one of those managers with an office in London. "Our customers are very, very worried," admitted Claudio Ortea. "Of course, your investment profile is different. In any case, we see no panic moves ", qualified investment director for Spain Swiss private bank.
Matt King, credit analyst at Citigroup in London, recalls that "in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, began once capital flight has continued almost unchanged and showed no signs of change even when markets recorded gains." "There are few reasons for believing that in the case of Spain or Italy will be different."
"The flight of deposits is an entirely rational response to the perception of increased risk of disintegration of the single currency", claimed last month Mike Riddell, fixed income manager M & G Investments, in a letter to customers. "I think the breakdown of the euro is the more likely event", he argues.
The fear is a repeat of Northern Rock queues as
However, the view is a minority Riddel among analysts. Another thing is a partial tear. "I wonder who wins to the euro? and not win one. I do not think the euro will disappear as such, yes as we know so far. Because the question in the case of Greece is not whether to abandon the euro, but when. It's inevitable, "says Ortea. Analysts and investors around the world have marked on your calendar the date of June 17, when Greece will hold a general election and whose outcome depends greatly on the country's future single currency. "Even if a systemic event occurs, the losses associated with exposure to Greece would be manageable. However, the main risk would come from a contagion to other economies, "they said economists at Deutsche Bank in a report.
Fear of contagion is the main fear among investors that the possibility of a euro in Greece precipitate flight of bank deposits, which when unleashed is difficult to stop. "The alarm signal of the situation in the eurozone would be a bank run, not only in Greece but also in other countries by a general distrust of the financial system and fear of contagion. It's an episode that can potentially occur after the elections in Greece from June 17, "says Cederholm. A fear shared by the Spanish financial sector. "Our fear is the queues at banks, the image itself sparking panic," admits a banker. The image of the customers of British bank Northern Rock queuing in offices to withdraw their savings is in the retina of all and no one wants to see a replay.
"At this point, the current problem of the European financial system requires solutions to move towards greater integration of banking markets," says Jose Ramon Iturriaga, of Abante Advisors. It is the argument put forward this week by the European authorities, the ECB president, Mario Draghi, head, in defense of the creation of a joint bank with a single supervisor, a deposit guarantee fund and a mechanism directly inject capital into troubled banks.
Almost unanimously backed plans by experts but require long procedures and national community for which the euro is timeless. "We have no oxygen to both markets and have no mercy. Have to find a shorter way, "says a manager.
The system is based on the interbank market and which is closed for months. It banks lend money to each other at a time, most within a day or a week at most. European banks have long since stopped lending money. Data from the last newsletter of the Bank of Spain indicate that Spanish banks were provided throughout the month of May 54.446 million euros in total, half a year ago and three times less than in May 2009.
The conclusion is obvious. They do not trust each other and this has forced the intervention of European Central Bank (ECB). "One of the reasons for the massive liquidity auctions of the ECB in December and February is the total closure of interbank" explains Claudio Ortea, investment director at Lombard Odier in Spain. Also explain the relaxation in the quality of assets banks can submit as collateral to the monetary authority. Anything to ensure liquidity.
Moreover. Peter Praet, Executive Board Member of the ECB, admitted at a recent conference in Milan that "the European sovereign crisis has caused a decline in financial integration in the region" and that, in fact, "the weakness of the EU to manage crisis is largely responsible for the partial re-nationalization of major financial market segments, "something inconsistent with a monetary union.
Analysts speak of 'Balkanization' of the European banking
Proof of that financial re is what has happened to Crédit Agricole. The French company bought in 2006 the Greek bank Emporiki, now in serious financial difficulties and has been excluded from the emergency liquidity lines from the central bank of Greece on the grounds that the matrix had sufficient funds to recapitalize its subsidiary. Its CEO, Jean-Paul Chifflet, attributes, however, that the Greek authorities consider them "foreigners" and break, thus the single market rules.
The free movement of capital is one of the founding principles not only of monetary union but of the European Union in its origins, the common market. But in recent months, and more in recent weeks, the free movement of capital is not being met and this threatens the future of the euro. Because of Credit Agricole is not an isolated case.
The media echoed this week of the restrictions imposed by German regulators at Italian bank Unicredit when repatriating funds from its German subsidiary to the parent, hit by severe stress. And the example has spread. The Austrian authorities have limited the transfer of funds from the states of the country to its subsidiaries in the former Eastern Europe, a region completely dependent on foreign credit. But these limitations have been extended beyond the former communist states and applied, in fact, to any country.
A manager of the Italian bank, passing through Madrid, recently explained the consequences of credit that nationalization is for day to day as Unicredit entity, with 57% of its business outside Italy. "Where better are the consequences of this rupture of the market is in South Tyrol, a region in northeast Italy bordering Austria. The offices have to charge interest rates far superior to Italian customers against the Austrians, who often live in the next village. " This is what some analysts called the balkanization European banking. "Even if the euro zone survives, the single financial market can not do it," they said.
The ECB supports the weak management of the crisis has favored the re-credit
No shortage of reasons. The phenomenon of financial re also extends to public debt, a process that resembles that of Japan after the housing and financial crisis of the nineties. According to Fitch, the proportion of Spanish and Italian public debt held by foreign investors has increased its downward trend in the first three months of the year. If the end of 2011, 40% of Spanish debt was in foreign hands, in late March, the percentage had dropped to 34%. In 2008, this proportion was 60%. In the Italian case, the debt held by foreigners is around 32%, but its starting level four years ago was only 50%.
"Outward foreign investors have been compensated by a significant increase in flows from the Eurosystem," Fitch explained in a note to clients. That is, Spanish and Italian banks have used the liquidity provided by the ECB auctions December and February to cover the march of foreign investors and secure funding for their states, deepening the ties between the banking crisis and sovereign crisis.
Capital controls or ECB
Fearing what financiers call a run-a withdrawal of deposits triggered by the panic in the population, some experts raised the possibility of reinstating capital controls in the eurozone. Hans Lorenzen, credit analyst at Citigroup, believes that in a scenario out of Greece's euro "as is inevitable in the transition period" and argues further that the limitation of free movement of capital "may be even compatible with the treaty, which includes an article on the exceptional ".
However, Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney, it drops. "If not done at this time, when it has stopped Greece's capital, I see no reason to impose controls are now" and commitment to an intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB) to try to stabilize the market. "The European Central Bank will intervene in the market before August with a massive new liquidity auctions with measures of quantitative easing," he says. "There are several circumstances of: Greek elections, the results of the audit of the Spanish financial system and a high financing needs of the Italian Treasury in the summer."
Ever since the rescue of Greece, in May 2010, the aversion of investors to the European periphery has been increasingly emphasizing. Only now it is down, apparently, is the investor appetite for any kind of active European just 2,000 million of capital from abroad were used to buy debt in the eurozone, according to Nomura.
"Late last year, the inverter outputs some positions in the euro were to some extent limited by the relocation of investments within the union. For example, American investors sold bonds to buy Irish and Portuguese German and French bonds. He fled from the periphery and core countries argued for. But in these first months of the year, there has been little demand for euro-zone debt among foreigners in general, "says Ylva Cederholm, a strategist at Nomura in London.
Thus, the eurozone does not attend only to the growing distrust of international investors, but are the Europeans themselves who seek refuge from their investments abroad. Japanese bank data indicate that the euro has made three consecutive months of purchases of foreign assets by regional investors. In March alone, the balance reached 60,000 million euros, "the largest investment abroad in the past year and a half."
Public debt held by foreign investors falls
"A disturbing trend since late 2011 is that European residents have left to repatriate capital from abroad. Repatriation, which represents a purchase of euros, limited, in our opinion, the depreciation of the euro during the latter part of 2011. In the first quarter of this year, that trend has not only stopped but has changed direction and residents of the euro began to buy assets denominated in other currencies, bringing the decline in value of the euro. The trend began in the first quarter of 2012 and seems to have continued in April, although it seems there was some return again in May, "says Cederholm.
"It's what largely explains the collapse of the euro in recent weeks," said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney. "And not just the euro, because the fear of a global recession has caused the downfall of the major emerging currencies, seeking refuge in assets as safe as the dollar and Swiss franc."
The outflow of funds from the euro explains the recent collapse of the currency
In Spain, the trend is repeated. The latest data released by the Bank of Spain indicate that the resources withdrawn by international investors and put the Spanish abroad in March reached the 66,200 million, a record. Overall, in the first three months of capital flight amounted to 97,090 million, as much money as in all of 2011.
The Economy Minister Luis de Guindos, ruled in the conference organized by the Association of Economy that these figures correspond to a capital flight, which are the result of fear of savers, and attributed more to the problems of financing banking. But the truth is that law firms in Madrid are awash in customer questions about the consequences of their savings out of the country and what the appropriate steps to do so. The investment fund managers are bombarded with questions about whether or not to invest their savings in assets outside the euro. "But large investors, but small savers, that's amazing," admits one of those managers with an office in London. "Our customers are very, very worried," admitted Claudio Ortea. "Of course, your investment profile is different. In any case, we see no panic moves ", qualified investment director for Spain Swiss private bank.
Matt King, credit analyst at Citigroup in London, recalls that "in Greece, Ireland and Portugal, began once capital flight has continued almost unchanged and showed no signs of change even when markets recorded gains." "There are few reasons for believing that in the case of Spain or Italy will be different."
"The flight of deposits is an entirely rational response to the perception of increased risk of disintegration of the single currency", claimed last month Mike Riddell, fixed income manager M & G Investments, in a letter to customers. "I think the breakdown of the euro is the more likely event", he argues.
The fear is a repeat of Northern Rock queues as
However, the view is a minority Riddel among analysts. Another thing is a partial tear. "I wonder who wins to the euro? and not win one. I do not think the euro will disappear as such, yes as we know so far. Because the question in the case of Greece is not whether to abandon the euro, but when. It's inevitable, "says Ortea. Analysts and investors around the world have marked on your calendar the date of June 17, when Greece will hold a general election and whose outcome depends greatly on the country's future single currency. "Even if a systemic event occurs, the losses associated with exposure to Greece would be manageable. However, the main risk would come from a contagion to other economies, "they said economists at Deutsche Bank in a report.
Fear of contagion is the main fear among investors that the possibility of a euro in Greece precipitate flight of bank deposits, which when unleashed is difficult to stop. "The alarm signal of the situation in the eurozone would be a bank run, not only in Greece but also in other countries by a general distrust of the financial system and fear of contagion. It's an episode that can potentially occur after the elections in Greece from June 17, "says Cederholm. A fear shared by the Spanish financial sector. "Our fear is the queues at banks, the image itself sparking panic," admits a banker. The image of the customers of British bank Northern Rock queuing in offices to withdraw their savings is in the retina of all and no one wants to see a replay.
"At this point, the current problem of the European financial system requires solutions to move towards greater integration of banking markets," says Jose Ramon Iturriaga, of Abante Advisors. It is the argument put forward this week by the European authorities, the ECB president, Mario Draghi, head, in defense of the creation of a joint bank with a single supervisor, a deposit guarantee fund and a mechanism directly inject capital into troubled banks.
Almost unanimously backed plans by experts but require long procedures and national community for which the euro is timeless. "We have no oxygen to both markets and have no mercy. Have to find a shorter way, "says a manager.
スペインの金融危機で、銀行間融資の停止、外国への資金銀行送金の規制などで、ヨーロッパの金融危機は深まる
0 件のコメント:
コメントを投稿