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スペインの銀行救済による財政赤字の増大による国家債券(国債)の信用不安から、スペインの10年国債の金利は7%に、高金利による市場からの資金調達が困難になり、スペインの財政破綻は間近?(2012年8月) 2012年末の国債返済額は800億0000'0000ユーロに
El rescate estigmatiza a España
La rentabilidad del bono toca el 7% y la prima marca máximos y baja en los demás países
El Gobierno culpa a las "circunstancias internacionales" de la situación de la deuda
The rescue stigmatized Spain
Bond yields touched 7% and maximum premium brand and low in other countries
The government blames "international circumstances" of the debt situation
Check out the special on the crisis of the euro
Miguel Jimenez Madrid 15 JUN 2012 - 00:45 CET
Bond yields touched 7% and maximum premium brand and low in other countries
The government blames "international circumstances" of the debt situation
Check out the special on the crisis of the euro
Miguel Jimenez Madrid 15 JUN 2012 - 00:45 CET
In his inaugural speech, the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy promised to complete the financial sector restructuring in the first six months of the year. But when just the first half, the financial sector is cut open, sanitation requirements have led Spain to the European rescue and all confidence indicators have deteriorated to the point. The Spanish credit is almost that of a junk bond, public debt will exceed first European average and doubts have prompted investors to flee Spanish assets. The risk premium and Spanish bond yields to 10 years marked new highs Thursday. Spain has failed to escape the stigma of rescue, even though the economy minister, Luis de Guindos, and Rajoy himself, they are promised very happy, to the irritation of the European partners.
The situation had not been "solved" as Rajoy said Sunday before flying to watch the game against Italy in the Spanish football team. So far, the markets had closed for the long-term financing in the three rescued: Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The government hoped that Spain was the exception, because the relative amount is much smaller Spanish rescue as it is intended to stabilize the financial sector. But for now, calculations have failed. Since the Eurogroup, which brings together the finance ministers of the euro, gave its approval to the rescue of Spain last weekend, the risk premium has skyrocketed and Thursday marked a new high of the euro was 552 points basic (5.52 percentage points).
The question is whether it will take another rescue, a full-scale, given the stigma about Spain that has followed the market punishing
The risk premium is the difference between the return that investors demand to 10-year Spanish bond and German, considered a safe asset, risk-free. And the markets are increasingly demanding more interest to Spanish titles. The entire yield curve (the graph that joins the required returns at different maturities) has deteriorated, which greatly complicates the funding strategy of the Treasury. The yield on the benchmark 10 year-old arrived on Thursday to 7% at five years, 6.2%, and 2 years, 5%. The situation is not resolved. Rajoy did not travel this Thursday to see the selection.
Just two weeks Guindos boasted that the Treasury "is fully funded" and that the net emission requirements were "extremely low" because they only had to issue bonds worth 3,000 million, "beyond the renovations." The problem is that renewals are not automatic and that foreign investors have fled the Spanish debt at the start of the year like never before. And those renovations (or maturities) are more than 80,000 million by year end. A figure higher than in the rescue will be needed for banking.
Guindos acknowledged Thursday that the situation is "not maintainable" in time, but the Government will "take steps" that will "reduce [the risk premium] in the coming days and in the coming weeks." The economy minister blamed the "volatility" and "tense situation" that is being experienced in the markets to "international circumstances." "It's a difficult week before the election Greek and obviously the government is aware of that situation," he added.
The money the ECB lends to the Spanish banking equivalent to about 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) Spanish
The uncertainty about Greek elections is certainly a destabilizing factor. But yesterday, the expectation of a victory of the traditional parties resulted in an improvement in the markets. So while the risk premium Spanish Thursday marked a fresh era of the euro, Italy and other countries was reduced, which weakens the Government's arguments. The differential required to Spanish debt against Italy on Thursday marked its peak of last year. While the profitability of their 10-year bonds has fallen so far this year from 7.1% to 6.1%, that of Spanish has risen from 5.1% to 7%. It seems that the factors are not only national.
The Government did not use the boot time of year when the markets were open, thanks to the massive injection of liquidity from the European Central Bank to get money to clean up the banking. At that time the thesis was that just would take public money. Then, Rajoy failed plan to inject public debt directly from banks to recapitalize, given the opposition of the ECB. By then, the melon Bankia was open (in the first bank intervention in recent history led by the Government and not by the Bank of Spain), financial reforms hampered the auction of the nationalized entities and alternative strategies sanitation financial sector had blown up. The bailout was inevitable.
more informationDoubts about Spain driving the 10-year rate and the premium to record highsRajoy's attitude after bailout angers EUThe auditors estimate that banks will need up to 70,000 millionMerkel: "We have infinite strength"Capital flight leads to the Spanish banks to ask the ECB record numbersSpecial on the crisis in the euro
Now the question is whether it will take another rescue, a full-scale, given the stigma of Spain has continued punishing the market. Economists and analysts believe that interest rates demanded by the market in Spain is unsustainable. Many of them claim the performance of the ECB in the secondary market. But experts unite politicians. But the problem is that politicians do not stop to ask the ECB to act. Rajoy has suggested on several occasions and on Thursday it did so explicitly Foreign Minister, Jose Manuel Garcia Margallo. The golden rule of independence of a central bank is not giving in to political pressures, so every statement is a stepping stone towards the goal of acting.
In any case, you can not say that the ECB has been entirely passive. The money paid to the Spanish banking sector (with blinded wholesale funding streams) is equivalent to about 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) Spanish. And the 100,000 million that the Eurogroup has agreed to pay to Spain account for another 10%.
So, to Spain will fall reprimands from Europe. The on Thursday, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, greatly irritated with Spain, which alleges a decade of irresponsibility that led to the brick bubble, now deflated with price falls of the top floors acute democracy. Margallo, which caused the anger of Merkel with an undiplomatic statement in which he accused of always arrive fifteen minutes late to fix the crisis, said on Thursday blamed the chancellor and part of Spain has lived beyond its means the core banking in Europe, finance.
The problem now is the opposite. Investors do not fund to Spain and this has necessitated the rescue. The president of the Bundesbank, the powerful German central bank, warned that the conditions of redemption are broad and that the aid only buys time. And the pressure on the Spanish government to implement further cuts in spending (the ECB called on Thursday) and tax increases (with VAT in the lead) is enhanced and can be invincible for negotiating the fine print of the bailout, especially if the markets are giving back to Spain. The final amount of it will be known next month and forecasts point to a range of 50,000 to 70,000 million.
Margallo said Thursday that the euro's future is at stake "in the coming hours." On Sunday there are elections in Greece and Monday and Tuesday, the G-20 in Mexico. Zapatero won Spain was invited to the forum, among other reasons, the importance of its economy and the soundness of its financial sector. Paradoxes of fate.
The situation had not been "solved" as Rajoy said Sunday before flying to watch the game against Italy in the Spanish football team. So far, the markets had closed for the long-term financing in the three rescued: Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The government hoped that Spain was the exception, because the relative amount is much smaller Spanish rescue as it is intended to stabilize the financial sector. But for now, calculations have failed. Since the Eurogroup, which brings together the finance ministers of the euro, gave its approval to the rescue of Spain last weekend, the risk premium has skyrocketed and Thursday marked a new high of the euro was 552 points basic (5.52 percentage points).
The question is whether it will take another rescue, a full-scale, given the stigma about Spain that has followed the market punishing
The risk premium is the difference between the return that investors demand to 10-year Spanish bond and German, considered a safe asset, risk-free. And the markets are increasingly demanding more interest to Spanish titles. The entire yield curve (the graph that joins the required returns at different maturities) has deteriorated, which greatly complicates the funding strategy of the Treasury. The yield on the benchmark 10 year-old arrived on Thursday to 7% at five years, 6.2%, and 2 years, 5%. The situation is not resolved. Rajoy did not travel this Thursday to see the selection.
Just two weeks Guindos boasted that the Treasury "is fully funded" and that the net emission requirements were "extremely low" because they only had to issue bonds worth 3,000 million, "beyond the renovations." The problem is that renewals are not automatic and that foreign investors have fled the Spanish debt at the start of the year like never before. And those renovations (or maturities) are more than 80,000 million by year end. A figure higher than in the rescue will be needed for banking.
Guindos acknowledged Thursday that the situation is "not maintainable" in time, but the Government will "take steps" that will "reduce [the risk premium] in the coming days and in the coming weeks." The economy minister blamed the "volatility" and "tense situation" that is being experienced in the markets to "international circumstances." "It's a difficult week before the election Greek and obviously the government is aware of that situation," he added.
The money the ECB lends to the Spanish banking equivalent to about 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) Spanish
The uncertainty about Greek elections is certainly a destabilizing factor. But yesterday, the expectation of a victory of the traditional parties resulted in an improvement in the markets. So while the risk premium Spanish Thursday marked a fresh era of the euro, Italy and other countries was reduced, which weakens the Government's arguments. The differential required to Spanish debt against Italy on Thursday marked its peak of last year. While the profitability of their 10-year bonds has fallen so far this year from 7.1% to 6.1%, that of Spanish has risen from 5.1% to 7%. It seems that the factors are not only national.
The Government did not use the boot time of year when the markets were open, thanks to the massive injection of liquidity from the European Central Bank to get money to clean up the banking. At that time the thesis was that just would take public money. Then, Rajoy failed plan to inject public debt directly from banks to recapitalize, given the opposition of the ECB. By then, the melon Bankia was open (in the first bank intervention in recent history led by the Government and not by the Bank of Spain), financial reforms hampered the auction of the nationalized entities and alternative strategies sanitation financial sector had blown up. The bailout was inevitable.
more informationDoubts about Spain driving the 10-year rate and the premium to record highsRajoy's attitude after bailout angers EUThe auditors estimate that banks will need up to 70,000 millionMerkel: "We have infinite strength"Capital flight leads to the Spanish banks to ask the ECB record numbersSpecial on the crisis in the euro
Now the question is whether it will take another rescue, a full-scale, given the stigma of Spain has continued punishing the market. Economists and analysts believe that interest rates demanded by the market in Spain is unsustainable. Many of them claim the performance of the ECB in the secondary market. But experts unite politicians. But the problem is that politicians do not stop to ask the ECB to act. Rajoy has suggested on several occasions and on Thursday it did so explicitly Foreign Minister, Jose Manuel Garcia Margallo. The golden rule of independence of a central bank is not giving in to political pressures, so every statement is a stepping stone towards the goal of acting.
In any case, you can not say that the ECB has been entirely passive. The money paid to the Spanish banking sector (with blinded wholesale funding streams) is equivalent to about 30% of gross domestic product (GDP) Spanish. And the 100,000 million that the Eurogroup has agreed to pay to Spain account for another 10%.
So, to Spain will fall reprimands from Europe. The on Thursday, German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, greatly irritated with Spain, which alleges a decade of irresponsibility that led to the brick bubble, now deflated with price falls of the top floors acute democracy. Margallo, which caused the anger of Merkel with an undiplomatic statement in which he accused of always arrive fifteen minutes late to fix the crisis, said on Thursday blamed the chancellor and part of Spain has lived beyond its means the core banking in Europe, finance.
The problem now is the opposite. Investors do not fund to Spain and this has necessitated the rescue. The president of the Bundesbank, the powerful German central bank, warned that the conditions of redemption are broad and that the aid only buys time. And the pressure on the Spanish government to implement further cuts in spending (the ECB called on Thursday) and tax increases (with VAT in the lead) is enhanced and can be invincible for negotiating the fine print of the bailout, especially if the markets are giving back to Spain. The final amount of it will be known next month and forecasts point to a range of 50,000 to 70,000 million.
Margallo said Thursday that the euro's future is at stake "in the coming hours." On Sunday there are elections in Greece and Monday and Tuesday, the G-20 in Mexico. Zapatero won Spain was invited to the forum, among other reasons, the importance of its economy and the soundness of its financial sector. Paradoxes of fate.
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